In a twist that has captivated the world of gambling and finance, whispers and rumors are growing louder: the Marjan Island region in the United Arab Emirates could soon become a glittering new hub for casinos. This unexpected development is all the more surprising given that gambling is currently prohibited under Islam and remains illegal in the UAE. As it stands, none of the six Gulf Cooperation Council countries—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—have legal casinos, though neighboring Lebanon and Egypt do.
A Gamble on the Future
The momentum to build casinos in the UAE has been steadily increasing, driven by the allure of significant economic benefits and the creation of a regulatory framework. Ras Al Khaimah and Abu Dhabi are at the forefront of these daring developments. While Abu Dhabi eyes potential sites, with Yas Island emerging as a top contender due to its thriving entertainment scene, Dubai, despite its status as a major tourism hotspot, has decided to hold off on casino ventures, opting to enhance its existing attractions instead.
Notably, over 20 developers are already deep into the planning and construction phases on Marjan Island, a locale poised to become a cornerstone of this new gambling frontier. The emirate’s small international airport is also gearing up for expansion, with plans to boost its capacity to 2 million passengers annually by 2027. Luxury hotel accommodations, currently exceeding 200,000 rooms, are set to grow further, reflecting the high stakes of this ambitious gamble.
Setting the Stage: Regulatory Developments
Last year, the UAE took a crucial step by establishing the General Commercial Gaming Regulatory Authority (GCGRA), tasked with overseeing the potential legalization and regulation of gambling activities. Led by industry veterans Jim Murren and Kevin Mullally, this new federal body aims to craft a tightly regulated gaming environment with stringent guidelines and high standards. The formation of the GCGRA is seen as a pivotal move toward decriminalizing gambling through legislative changes and federal decrees.
Analysts are forecasting substantial revenue from legalized gambling, with Bloomberg Intelligence estimating potential earnings of up to $6.6 billion annually—surpassing Singapore’s gaming revenue. CBRE analyst John DeCree has identified the development of integrated resorts and casino gambling in the UAE as one of today’s most enticing global gaming opportunities.
A Glimpse of the Future
Wynn Resorts has already broken ground on a $3.9 billion integrated resort on Al Marjan Island in Ras Al Khaimah, slated to open in 2027. The buzz is palpable, with CBRE projecting robust returns, high property margins, and a significant non-gaming mix, potentially outshining even Macau and Singapore’s integrated resorts. DeCree and his team, fresh from a site visit, are more bullish than ever on Wynn’s prospects, forecasting gross gaming revenue of $1.38 billion, net revenue of $1.8 billion, and property EBITDARM of $921 million. With a favorable regulatory environment, low GGR tax rate, and minimal competition, CBRE believes Wynn could achieve property margins as high as 50%.
The Domino Effect
As the world watches, other major players in the casino industry are also eyeing the UAE. Las Vegas Sands, Caesars Entertainment, Genting Group, Hard Rock International, Galaxy Entertainment, Melco Resorts, and MGM Resorts International are all seen as potential developers, should gaming be legalized. Meanwhile, hospitality giants like Hilton Worldwide, Marriott International, and Hyatt Hotels stand to benefit from the anticipated surge in tourism.
For investors, the iShares MSCI UAE ETF represents a comprehensive bet on the country’s burgeoning potential, capturing the upside of this bold and transformative gamble.
The future of gambling in the UAE remains shrouded in mystery, but one thing is certain: the stakes have never been higher, and the world is watching closely as the next chapter unfolds.
